As Christmas quickly approaches, many might be wondering and some may be hoping about the possibility of a white Christmas.
Based on recent projections released by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, the chances aren’t so good for much of the U.S.
According to the 8-to-14-day projection released by the Climate Prediction Center, nearly the entire U.S. is expected to have above-average temperatures for the days surrounding Christmas. The Northern Plains are most likely to have seasonably warm conditions.
No region of the U.S. is expected to have cooler-than-average weather from Dec. 21-27, the Climate Prediction Center said.
“Above-normal temperatures are favored for nearly the entire United States for the Week 2 period,” said forecaster Ryan Bolt. “The strongest chances for above-normal temperatures, exceeding 80%, is across the Northern and Central Plains, Upper and Middle-Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes.
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In a given year, most major U.S. cities chances of seeing a white Christmas are well below 50%, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA considers a Christmas to be white if there is at least one inch of snow on the ground.
In major U.S. cities like New York and Philadelphia, the chances stand around 10%. Going up to Boston improves the chances to about 32%.
Major Midwest cities, like Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland, have about a 40% chance of a white Christmas.
U.S. cities with the best chances of a white Christmas (100 largest by population):
1) St. Paul, Minnesota 76%
2) Minneapolis 74%
3) Madison, Wisconsin 65%
4) Spokane, Washington 60%
5) Buffalo 55%
6) Milwaukee 47%
7) Cleveland 43%
8) Chicago 41%
9) Denver 40%
10) Toledo, Ohio 38%
All 10 of these cities had a white Christmas in 2022, with a reported snow depth of 20 inches in the Buffalo area and 15 inches in Spokane, according to NOAA.
Are you looking for a nearly guaranteed shot of having a white Christmas in the continental United States? Crested Butte, Colorado, has a 99% chance of a white Christmas, according to NOAA. The city is high up in the Rocky Mountains at an elevation of 8,800 feet.
In 2022, extremely cold conditions provided a white Christmas for nearly the entire Midwest and interior Northeast. Even parts of Tennessee and North Carolina recorded an inch of snow depth on Christmas Day last year.
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